The Astonishing Scoring Streak Propels Villa's Surprising Championship Bid
It was 60 days prior when the young forward stood on the pitch at Sunderland, looking confused while the Villa manager berated him for missing a through-ball. During that period, as Villa went six without a win, it wasn't clear if his displays were an indicator or the source of Villa's wider issues.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
On Sunday, however, the sideline response was entirely decidedly more positive. After Rogers drilled in his brace-sealing goal to reclaim his side's advantage, Emery discarded his coat, spread his arms and shouted in triumph. Villa continued to ten wins in a row , after failing to win their opening six matches, are somehow just three points off the leaders Arsenal.
Is This Team Serious Challengers?
This is a rather hard proposition to answer. The historical record, the perceived status of this institution, suggests not. Moreover, they have not been completely commanding this season, even as the victories have piled up.
As per statistical analysis, in only two games have Villa registered an xG significantly higher than their opponents. For a club which has strung together 10 in a row, the Villans appear curiously susceptible – however right now the fine lines are going in their favour.
The Reliant Strategy
Their recent policy seems to be to trade blows with the opposition before hoping Rogers to rescue them with a couple of clinical strikes. This was the case at Leeds, it happened at West Ham, and again when facing Manchester United.
His opener came from an exquisite effort, bent right inside the post from the edge of the area. His brace-completing goal acted as a slight scruffier version of goal number one as he seized on a pass from Watkins.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Can It Last?
Logic says not. In the recent win, the opponents registered a greater number of attempts and more direct attempts. Villa have won each of their last eight by the narrowest of margins. The defence has been breached in all but one of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean may well be the most significant challenge Villa have to face in the near future. The forward, almost certainly, cannot keep on blasting his shots into the net's top corner indefinitely.
Potential for Growth
Perhaps there is a different scenario in which, rather than luck running out, the level of play rises to match the results. Important figures may yet rediscover their best form.
- The centre-forward could start finding the net regularly.
- Jadon Sancho may rediscover the player he resembled in Germany.
- The defensive duo are due to return from injury, bolstering a periodically leaky defensive unit.
Maybe within that lies the potential of a title challenge, however, it is improbable can persist in leaning entirely on a single individual.
Relishing the Unlikely
However, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable the team would be third at Christmas. And most definitely back in October, no one envisioned Rogers as the year closed would be leading a title charge while establishing himself as an essential England player.
The current run should be enjoyed precisely because it appears so improbable. When the hero stood in front of the North End at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells are rare in football and ought to be celebrated.